So, first, what is a Yo-yo?1 A Yo-yo is a simple, ancient toy that uses rotational energy to spin the spool as it winds and unwinds repeatedly. That fast change in the position of the yo-yo’s spool made it a fun toy for me to play with as a kid.

So, what’s YO-YO WEATHER? It's quick weather changes, often going from extreme to extreme in a back-and-forth pattern. Like the yo-yo, it does not stop in the middle or at the moderate weather expected at a particular time of year. This means we can start a week in January above 0°C and end up at -30°c in the same week. The next week, you start at -30°C, then the next day it's +5°C, and you get rain instead of the expected January snow.

Falling through Thin Ice Weak spot on Winter River Ice

We have come to expect Weather Patterns2 at certain times of year and for certain locations. This does not mean we should have or ever believed all weather forecasts. However, professional long-term course and trip planning is based on averages and expectations of the conditions. This is part of proper planning. An instructor or guide should know when the best weeks for an outdoor activity traditionally would occur, the high season for that activity. With shortened and more random weather, this becomes harder to plan for.

That does not mean we never expected or received bad or extra cold weather. High gusty winds, extreme cold and freezing rain all occurred in Canada's winter mountains and forests, normally not in the same week and not week after week. When we get extreme cold, it stays cold for a few weeks and moderates out for a few weeks. If we had a January thaw (“mid-winter weather above 0°c), it lasted for a few days and then moderated again to below-freezing temperatures.

We have come to expect or should expect average temperatures for that time of year in a particular location3. The expectations were never for good weather, just weather within a range we could properly pack and prepare for. Those expectations are often based on our experience and enough travel in that period. We came to expect that we can have extremes, but they are something that hits only from time to time.

PROBLEMS WITH YO-YO WEATHER

I can think of several major problems that these weather changes are causing. There will certainly be others I have not foreseen that will cause problems. Indeed, there will be one that affects a particular outdoor business or season more than another. Let's look at the dozen that I can foresee one at a time:

  1. AVALANCHE: Poorer seasonal Avalanche4 conditions will become the norm. Weak layers in the snowpack will become more common and affect the snowpack more often. This will cause quicker changes in backcountry conditions and a greater chance of being trapped due to changes that stop you from travelling out. This will reduce the locations and times where safe winter travel is possible in montane areas.
  2. THIN ICE: This is not a new hazard; it's just one we will see more problems with in the future. Ice thickens over the winter, but is also greatly affected by spells of warm temperatures and the movement of water. This can include the weakening or overflowing of the ice sheet and the creation of air pockets or weak layers in the ice sheet. Water level fluctuations caused by quick melts and subsequent refreezing can be problematic for overall ice strength. This is also why a professional will look at the strength of the ice and the layers within the ice, not just overall thickness, before making an assessment. The greater the number of times yo-yo weather arrives in winter, the more affected the ice becomes. Large dumps of snow coming quickly may cover up or hide these long-term weaknesses. Any number of things can thin or weaken an ice sheet, and those effects may not be seen until someone steps or drives through a patch of thin ice. This means greater time must be taken to do a proper professional ice assessment before moving onto an ice sheet. Constant re-evaluation of the ice sheet must be done even if the ice is deemed acceptable for travel. This slows travel on our lakes and rivers during the winter. It can force groups to travel within the forests and certainly will reduce the safe winter ice travel season.
  3. WIND: One of the biggest changes I have seen over the last five years has been an increase in seasonal gusty winds. These winds are intense and often mean day after day of gusty winds that last throughout a season. In Alberta, this was common in spring but is now common in both fall and winter. These winds cause more treefall, broken branches and reduced locations for safe camps. These excess gusty winds can make many areas unsafe to camp in, reducing shelter types or forcing one to do more work to create wind walls. It can stop travel by small boats or reduce the locations for safe travel. High gusty winds also damage property like docks and cabins, which will increase the cost of running lodges and access to the wilderness via boat and aircraft. These winds will also reduce foot and vehicle travel by blocking more trails and roads due to tree fall. High winds also mean higher wind chills and tougher conditions for fire lighting. High enough winds may make lighting a fire dangerous or impossible.
    4. Wind Destroyed Dock Wind Broken Evergreen Tree
  4. HUMIDITY: Humidity levels change, but this tends to be between Ecozone or seasons and not something we need to deal with in a course or trip. Higher humidity levels cause problems, it makes things feel colder and increase the calories burned while keeping warm. In areas that are drying out, the opposite will occur, and dryness in the environment will mean more need for water and less abundance.
  5. PRECIPITATION: Precipitation amounts always vary, but more storms and heavier amounts of precipitation in each of these individual storms do not lead to more precipitation in the region, but instead determine how fast and when you receive them. What is occurring is bigger dumps of snow or larger amounts of rain along with more variances in the precipitation types, i.e. freezing rain, freezing drizzle and ice pellets. This, alongside heavy rain or heavy snow loads coming quite quickly, and flash flooding, has led to challenging conditions in the backcountry and more natural disasters.
  6. FIRE HAZARD: Increased fire hazards both in summer and winter. Seasonal fire bans will reduce travel options and increase the weight carried into the backcountry. To quote the Alberta Government, “In Alberta, peak wildfire season starts March 1 and runs until October 31. However, fires may occur year-round, even in the winter.”5 When I started teaching survival 30 years ago, the fire season normally started in May and ended in September. High-speed gusts and a lack of snow cover will cause an increased fire hazard in winter when fires are needed for heat and are a regular part of winter travel. Higher temperatures can also strip snow cover and allow forest fires to start outside of what was once the regular forest fire season. Indeed, fire season is now year-round in much of southern Canada and far longer than it was even 10 years ago in northern Canada. This will also mean more contingency planning for evacuations, higher costs and cancelled activities due to fire hazards and forest fires burning in an area6.
    7. Old Forest Fire Burn in the Mountains of Canada Fresh Forest Fire Burn in the Boreal Shield of Canada
  7. STRESS ON THE FORESTS: These extreme changes in weather and alterations in climate affect the forests and individual plants. Stress on the forest at best reduces growth. At worst, it wipes a fragile species out. Plants can be killed off during the spring if they bloom or green up too early, and a drop in temperature hits hard. Deciduous trees that sprout leaves early can be killed off when wet snow breaks their branches. This stress on the forest is already being seen, with some subtle changes and others much larger and long-term. As fires ravage our landscapes from coast to coast and winds become greater and gustier, changes are happening to our forests. What trees and plants will return to these drier, wind-ravaged forests? What changes will occur on our south and north-facing slopes? How many small plants and seedlings will die due to these quick weather changes or lack of snow cover? Are more wasps and bigger crops of rose hips just something that happens in a cycle, or are they part of this new norm? Forests are large, resilient organisms; the stress is there; I see signs all the time, and if you look closely, you will see them as well.
  8. STRESS ON WILDLIFE: Even more than plant life, yo-yo weather will cause great stress on our wildlife. Stressed animals will seek out food or forge, which will cause wildlife movements and habitat changes as their habitat changes. These changes mean more wildlife deaths, migration and attacks on humans. Yet look at one example. Both grizzly and black bear Hibernate. Their Hibernation is a sleep state called torpor (“tor-pr”). It is a survival tactic where they reduce their body temperature and metabolic rate. This allows Bears to survive the cold winter months and is triggered by cold temperatures and decreased food availability. Therefore, bears can wake up in warning spells and may start skipping or shortening Hibernation. This also means more encounters in winter when the expectation is that bears are hibernating. We need to carry bear spray year-round and practice bear awareness constantly. Changes in climate and weather are altering or expanding the ranges for certain animals. When under stress, animals move to survive and find forage; they will not stay in place and die. Over time, more stress will be placed on wildlife, and therefore, more wildlife encounters will occur. We need to get used to that. It will be part of our lives. If you have not already, take a professional and updated Wildlife & Bear Awareness Seminar7.
  9. QUICK TEMPERATURE CHANGES: The temperature yo-yo causes us to bring more clothing with us for a wider range of conditions. Extreme cold weather clothing is heavy and is required for survival at -25°c and below. Most outer clothing for these temperatures is not waterproof. They normally work far better if breathable and robust, and become nearly worthless in the rain. High-tech fabrics are generally less robust and have a far higher cost. You would also be required to fit any waterproof gear you took for wearing over extreme cold weather clothing or take two separate shell layers, again increasing the weight you are required to carry. The oversizing of outer shell layers also means it would be a different set of clothing than your summer clothing due to its fit, increasing costs. Yo-Yo Weather will mean higher clothing costs and more weight of clothing carried on a regular basis in the Canadian wilderness.
    10. River Flooding its Banks High Humidity caused Morning Fog
  10. DRYING OF CLOTHING: Drying of footwear, clothing and gear will take longer and the need to change the shelter design to allow more room for drying of gear day after day. Footwear that is soaking wet and then freezes solid when the weather changes can become a major problem. Even the type of boot you take into the wilderness may need to be changed due to conditions. Thin ice, more rain in winter, and a greater amount of precipitation coming over a shorter period will increase this problem. This may also mean that for enjoyment or survival, a greater reliance on fires, all at a time when they are more dangerous due to excess winds and an increased fire hazard. The worst problem is that there is no one simple solution, as the clothing we take is based on the conditions expected, not the conditions we receive. If you take multiple changes of clothing and footwear with you, you are carrying too much, and no one boot or set of clothing will work in all conditions.
  11. SHELTER DESIGN: The type of shelter taken in with us or that we hope to build in the wilderness, and the shelter considerations change depending on the conditions and activity you are participating in. Your choice of a survival shelter is greatly reduced if it needs to be waterproof, requires heat from a fire because it's -30°c and needs to survive in high winds. A shelter that works well in the rain rarely does anything to keep you warm in extreme cold weather, and vice versa. Heavy snowfall can also change the type of shelter you can or should build. Shelter design will become more complex and site-specific. Proper shelter considerations are often mixed up and misunderstood. These new problems will worsen over time and cause more stranded individuals to be miserable due to a misunderstanding of what their shelter can and will do for them. These changes will require even more training than it does today. These changes will make older survival manuals and books even more obsolete than they already are.
  12. FORECASTING: Weather Forecasting8 is becoming less accurate than in the past, and long-term forecasting is becoming more inaccurate. With Yo-Yo weather, it will become harder to find breaks in the weather or to plan for the expected conditions. We use weather forecasting to make our job easier and our planning simpler. We now need to work with a less effective safety net and with the expectation that the forecast may be wrong more often. It will mean that we spend more money in remote areas by using our Satellite Communication Devices9 to get up-to-the-minute forecasts. Either way, the safety of groups travelling in the wilderness will be affected by the inaccuracy of our weather forecasts in the future.

OUR FUTURE WITH YO-YO WEATHER

So, what does yo-yo weather mean for the future of Outdoor Education? We will have to work with and live with YO-YO WEATHER. These extremes and their back-and-forth weather patterns are becoming part of our lives. Not only will the winter season become shorter, but it will also become more extreme. Fall and Spring will also have weather changes, and summer will have constant fire bans throughout.

This yo-yo weather causes trip and course cancellations. Over time, a few of these cancellations will become unnecessary as the weather quickly changes again. These cancellations will cost companies money. That will increase costs for all courses and trips and decrease the number of people willing to pay for training or treks.

In-trip changes to routines, routes or activities will also affect both the reputation and expectations of many companies, schools and guides. Some individuals will complain even in situations that the instructor or guide has no control over. Social media complaints can then spiral out of control and destroy the reputation of a company or an individual guide.

River Bank Damage on the Mackenzie River in the Northwest Territories in Canada Flood Damage due to Heavy Rain

This may also lead to instructors and guides trying to carry on in poor or unsafe conditions. Wanting to ensure a course or trek is successful is a powerful force in every instructor or guide and is often overwhelming for a junior instructor or guide10. This can lead to injuries and deaths outdoors. These disasters can destroy a company and lead to cancellation or wholesale changes in an activity. It will also affect the entire outdoor industry's liability insurance and further increase regulation and controls. Overall, these weather changes will decrease wilderness access while increasing costs. This will be a real problem for outdoor educators or guides making a meagre living, and whose potential clients are already complaining about the costs. Certainly, every outdoor company will require larger constituency funding for the unexpected and uninsurable.

So can we live with YO-YO WEATHER, yes. We can, but it will require the entire outdoor instruction and guiding industry to do more detailed trip planning, excellent contingency planning, have flexible retrieval systems and most importantly, manage client expectations. Everyone will need to understand that these weather changes are real. They can seem almost random, will affect us now and into the future and may cause us problems this trip. These problems may be just annoying, or they may be dangerous. They may even ruin an entire season of a particular activity.

“Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get” — Robert Heinlein11

Yes, we will need to work harder to attract and retain clients. It will also lessen the overall number of people visiting the Canadian wilderness. Can these changes be mitigated, yes in most cases they can be, but we will need to live with these random changes. The expectations of our Outdoor Activities must now be for more random weather, within a bigger range of temperatures, wind speeds, humidity and precipitation levels that we must still properly pack and prepare for.

Article by ()
Chief Instructor of the Boreal Wilderness Institute


Additional Resources

Footnotes

  1. Yo-yo.
  2. Weather systems and patterns.
  3. This Natural Resource Canada page is an excllent overview of historic Canadian Climate and Environment.
  4. An Avalanche is a rapid flow of snow down a slope, such as a hill or mountain.
  5. quoted for the Alberta Provinical Wildfire Preparedness article.
  6. Canada is coming off 3 consecutive severe fire years. There are concerning signs for 2026.
  7. Wildlife & Bear Awareness Seminar, our 3.5-Hour Online or Classroom Instructor-led Wildlife & Bear Safety Course.
  8. Weather Forecasting.
  9. I presently use a Garmin inReach Mini 3, but all inReach Satellite Communication Devices have access to real-time weather forecasting, with a monthly fee.
  10. Learning to deal with potential survival situations is now more important than ever, read my article on How Far Can I Push It?
  11. This quote, often attributed to Mark Twain, actually comes from Robert Heinlein 1973 release of the novel “Time Enough for Love.”